well, film sales in USA were ~1 billion roll equiv. in 2000, 822 million
rolls of 35mm (see http://medfmt.8k.com/third/economics.html ) and

SILVER HALIDE BASED FILM SALES:
         2000                         2001
Europe    25%/ 790 mln                 26%/ 810 mln
USA       25%/ 770 mln                 23%/ 720 mln
Japan     13%/ 390 mln                 13%/ 390 mln
RoW       37%/ 1150 mln                38%/ 1200 mln

Total     3100 mln (+ 3%)             3120 mln (+ 1%)

with       350 mln single use cameras   370 mln single use cameras

a previous posting at the above URL estimated only 1 million rolls/yr
per emulsion in 120/220 MF, at an average wholesale price of circa $2
(e.g., Kodak).

On the other hand, some film makers have had only a few % of USA
marketshare in film, yet continued to sell despite total USA sales of only
7 to 15 million rolls/year ($10-25 million/yr wholesale).

So you can read this either way ;-)  The good news is that despite modest
volumes (1 million rolls/yr) per emulsion worldwide, 120/220 MF film
continues to be produced and sold, and remains part of the "cash cow" side
of Kodak and other producers. The bad news is that each emulsion only
represents on average a few million dollars in sales, and so only a
$100,000 or so in profits on average. Popular sellers (velvia, portra 160)
may do much better, so some 120/220 emulsions must be more marginal in
sales and profits (e.g., 250,000 rolls/yr = $25k in profits only).

With film sales overall dropping circa 17% this last year per some posted
reports, you would expect the loss of 7 (.17*40) marginal emulsions - cf.
loss of 220 filmstocks (Ilford..), kodachromes, Ektar 25, VPS, etc.

I have wrongly assumed that corporations like Kodak would protect their
unique film offerings as an effective monopoly, e.g., kodachrome, ektar
25, and charge what the market might bear. This does NOT seem to be
happening. Instead, unique films are being lost, with nearly all the slow
very fine grained films now gone, as I've noted in a prior posting.

Conversely, this means that Kodak really is going to compete on price for
their remaining products against Fuji, as they stated in their (in)famous
press release on cannabalizing the film cash cow to support digital, no
more film development etc. (since retracted, mostly).

So the implications are that film will get CHEAPER, and we won't have the
option of paying more for less popular films, they are simply being
shutdown. It remains to be seen if Ilford's plants remain shutdown or if
the assets and film technologies reappear.

So I'm tending to agree that we will see a handful of popular film types
and speeds left standing, if these trends continue. On the other hand, if
all the remaining sales get concentrated in these few film stocks, they
will be increasingly profitable to maintain (esp. with no R&D $ and using
older plants long paid for..).

bobm

Do you mean panatomic-x? My second favorite film, the first being Adox KB-14.
Panatomic X did home some advanages, i.e. being kodak it was easily availble
when I lived in the U.S. the qaulity control and backing were much better
and it was truely panchromatic.

If I remember correctly, the closest thing to it was plus-x which could
produce a picture nearer pantomic-x than anything else, but not the same. :-(

Geoff.

I've heard that you can do the anti-halation layer removal by hand.  If it looks
like Tech-Pan, it'd be worth.  Remember I already agreed to pay $12/roll for
TechPan.  I have a hunch though that the fellow that told me that it looked like
TechPan was processing K12, but there's always hope.

Not if photographers switch to chromogenic B&W films from another
vendor, which have finer grain and better resolution than T-Max 100
(although not as good as Tech Pan).

Kodak is playing a very dangerous game, and given their track record, I
think it's quite likely that they'll lose, again.

You can use T-Max if you want to.  The two rolls in my cabinet are the last
I'll ever use.  As far as I know Ilford film is still available.  During
Polaroid's bankruptcy, most of their products were available.  And if Iford
goes under, I'll try some of the other European products, like Fomapan and
Bergger.  I will make every effort I can "not" to buy any Kodak product aside
from the occasional roll of Kodachrome, which will probably be MDed shortly.
And I'm debating whether or not I should "stock up" on TechPan.  One side of
me says that I'm just re-inforcing bad behaviour and the other side says I'm
cutting off my nose to spite my face.