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Photo Forum / Film Photography / 35 mm / February 2005Erwin Puts On Leica's Prospects
From his web site, dated January 2005: "Leica as a company is struggling to survive: there has been a recent major shift in shareholders, the shares themselves are at a very low level, the workforce has been substantially reduced, and the concept for the future is a bit vague. Leica wants to profile itself as the only manufacturer that will offer a bridge for the analogue-digital watershed by offering hybrid cameras (the R9 Digital), but the whole idea of a bridge is itself a question mark. "This said, I also have to admit that taking photographs with a Leica camera is a joy and an inspiration. The optics are second to none and offer some very special optical characteristics that can be effectively exploited with film to create brilliant photographs. The engineering, the handling and the feeling of quality are quite inspiring for the user to create pictures that are a match for the camera and its lenses." http://www.imx.nl/photosite/leica/leicahome.html > From his web site, dated January 2005: > [quoted text clipped - 12 lines] > feeling of quality are quite inspiring for the user to create pictures that > are a match for the camera and its lenses." I don't believe Leica can hope to compete against Canon, Nikon et al in the amateur market anymore with their current B-plan, and forget pro to 99.999%. I think Leica could find a profitable market in a much narrower and specialized niche than where they are currently. They could even focus on optics alone and offer high end, FFL lenses for Nikon, Canon, Minolta, Pentax and Oly... That would be highly lucrative, get them away from camera bodies where they are 20 years behind, and avoid digital which favours large market share. Cheers, Alan  Signature-- r.p.e.35mm user resource: http://www.aliasimages.com/rpe35mmur.htm -- r.p.d.slr-systems: http://www.aliasimages.com/rpdslrsysur.htm -- [SI] gallery & rulz: http://www.pbase.com/shootin -- e-meil: there's no such thing as a FreeLunch. > I don't believe Leica can hope to compete against Canon, Nikon et al in the > amateur market anymore with their current B-plan, and forget pro to 99.999%. [quoted text clipped - 13 lines] > -- [SI] gallery & rulz: http://www.pbase.com/shootin > -- e-meil: there's no such thing as a FreeLunch. A common problem in these kind of situations is that they are late to change their business and by the time it is clear that they are going to have to be a smaller business they have accumulated so much debt burden that they can't make is as a much smaller company. The best bet is likely for them to go bankrupt and then have someone buy them as a whole entity. Scott > A common problem in these kind of situations is that they are late to > change their business and by the time it is clear that they are going [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > The best bet is likely for them to go bankrupt and then have someone > buy them as a whole entity. Yep. Signature-- r.p.e.35mm user resource: http://www.aliasimages.com/rpe35mmur.htm -- r.p.d.slr-systems: http://www.aliasimages.com/rpdslrsysur.htm -- [SI] gallery & rulz: http://www.pbase.com/shootin -- e-meil: there's no such thing as a FreeLunch. > I don't believe Leica can hope to compete against Canon, Nikon et al in > the amateur market anymore with their current B-plan, and forget pro to [quoted text clipped - 8 lines] > they are 20 years behind, and avoid digital which favours large market > share. I just had this crazy vision of Sigma or Tamron buying Leica. That'd really rile up some feathers. - Matt >> I don't believe Leica can hope to compete against Canon, Nikon et >> al in the amateur market anymore with their current B-plan, and [quoted text clipped - 13 lines] > > - Matt Sigma probably lost too much money on the SD9 and SD10 to be in a position to do that. Maybe Panasonic? SignatureBill > Sigma probably lost too much money on the SD9 and SD10 to be in a > position to do that. Maybe Panasonic? Too "niche" for a consumer electronics co. like Panasonic. It could simply rise up out of the ashes of an eventual bankrupcy with a narrower focus and new business plan... new investors would force them to abandon areas of weakness (bodies/digital) and focus on strengh (optics). Of course there are currently no digital sensors up to the optical qualities of most Leica lenses. (runs for cover...) Cheers, Alan Signature-- r.p.e.35mm user resource: http://www.aliasimages.com/rpe35mmur.htm -- r.p.d.slr-systems: http://www.aliasimages.com/rpdslrsysur.htm -- [SI] gallery & rulz: http://www.pbase.com/shootin -- e-meil: there's no such thing as a FreeLunch. > Too "niche" for a consumer electronics co. like Panasonic. > > It could simply rise up out of the ashes of an eventual bankrupcy with a > narrower focus and new business plan... new investors would force them to > abandon areas of weakness (bodies/digital) and focus on strengh (optics). That is exactly what I thought Pana could do with Leica - simpler for Pana to own the optics lab than negotiate with a partner, however weak. Also they have real money invested in co-branding and they would not want anyone else devaluing the Leica brand with 2Mpx cameras. The existing Pana/Leica agreement may even have some first refusal rights in it - I'm sure Pana would have asked for that at least when they negotited the existing agreement. >> Too "niche" for a consumer electronics co. like Panasonic. >> [quoted text clipped - 8 lines] > agreement may even have some first refusal rights in it - I'm sure Pana would > have asked for that at least when they negotited the existing agreement. Good point. Signature-- r.p.e.35mm user resource: http://www.aliasimages.com/rpe35mmur.htm -- r.p.d.slr-systems: http://www.aliasimages.com/rpdslrsysur.htm -- [SI] gallery & rulz: http://www.pbase.com/shootin -- e-meil: there's no such thing as a FreeLunch. >> Sigma probably lost too much money on the SD9 and SD10 to be in a >> position to do that. Maybe Panasonic? > > Too "niche" for a consumer electronics co. like Panasonic. Panasonic isn't just a consumer electronics company. They are the largest provider of HTDV video equipment for the television industry and have many products (don't know details) for the movie industry. Given how good many movie camera lenses are, I wonder who makes them and whether there is a large future market in replacement lenses for HDTV recording? > >> Sigma probably lost too much money on the SD9 and SD10 to be in a > >> position to do that. Maybe Panasonic? [quoted text clipped - 8 lines] > and whether there is a large future market in replacement lenses > for HDTV recording? Canon and Fuji actually are the largest lens providers in the broadcast and HDTV markets. Cine lenses are provided mainly by Zeiss, Century Precision Optics (Schneider), Panavision, Angeniux and ARRI. The prices would make most 35 mm still camera users gasp with shock. At the high end, the mount is often a C mount, and somewhat standard, so lenses purchased should have a long service life. Ciao! Gordon Moat A G Studio <http://www.allgstudio.com> >>>Sigma probably lost too much money on the SD9 and SD10 to be in a >>>position to do that. Maybe Panasonic? [quoted text clipped - 8 lines] > and whether there is a large future market in replacement lenses > for HDTV recording? I was referring to products that the general public buys, not industrial equipment. For widescreen television I imagine the sensor dimensions and film gates (whatever their called) record the image within the existing image circle of the current lens systems. (I don't know but it seems logical). For movie cameras, no change (most television programs (drama, evening comedies and such) are still filmed as far as I know, they might need upgraded cameras, but not lenses). Cheers, Alan Signature-- r.p.e.35mm user resource: http://www.aliasimages.com/rpe35mmur.htm -- r.p.d.slr-systems: http://www.aliasimages.com/rpdslrsysur.htm -- [SI] gallery & rulz: http://www.pbase.com/shootin -- e-meil: there's no such thing as a FreeLunch. >>I don't believe Leica can hope to compete against Canon, Nikon et al in >>the amateur market anymore with their current B-plan, and forget pro to [quoted text clipped - 11 lines] > I just had this crazy vision of Sigma or Tamron buying Leica. That'd > really rile up some feathers. Don't laugh, it can happen. The shareholders/board will sell out to the best dollar as usual. It would not neccesarilly be a bad thing if one of these companies had a AAA line of lenses... (and hopefully they would not x-breed anything). Cheers, Alan Signature-- r.p.e.35mm user resource: http://www.aliasimages.com/rpe35mmur.htm -- r.p.d.slr-systems: http://www.aliasimages.com/rpdslrsysur.htm -- [SI] gallery & rulz: http://www.pbase.com/shootin -- e-meil: there's no such thing as a FreeLunch. >>>I don't believe Leica can hope to compete against Canon, Nikon et al in >>>the amateur market anymore with their current B-plan, and forget pro to [quoted text clipped - 20 lines] > Cheers, > Alan Naaaa.....They would just exploit the Leica name with cheap junk until they made as much money as possible, and then throw it away.....I've seen it happen too many times during my lifetime...... > I just had this crazy vision of Sigma or Tamron buying Leica. That'd > really rile up some feathers. It's a good bet that some company in the Far East will buy up the Leica name and charge premium prices for average-quality bodies and lenses. Happens all the time. > I just had this crazy vision of Sigma or Tamron buying Leica. That'd > really rile up some feathers. I think the two obvious choices are Cosina and Panasonic. >> I just had this crazy vision of Sigma or Tamron buying Leica. That'd >> really rile up some feathers. > > I think the two obvious choices are Cosina and Panasonic. Or Konica-Minolta....... >Leica wants to profile itself as the only manufacturer that >will offer a bridge for the analogue-digital watershed by offering hybrid >cameras (the R9 Digital) Leica is known primarily (almost entirely, in fact) for their rangefinder cameras. Their SLR's, film or digital, aren't going to save them. SignatureMark Roberts Photography and writing www.robertstech.com I would rather see the Leica name as dead as Miranda or Exacta rather than see it become only a franchised merchandising label for anonymous Asian OEMs. What's the chance of that? > I would rather see the Leica name as dead as Miranda or Exacta rather than > see it become only a franchised merchandising label for anonymous Asian > OEMs. > What's the chance of that? well Panasonic would buy the label surely? and maybe the design lab? > I would rather see the Leica name as dead as Miranda or Exacta rather than > see it become only a franchised merchandising label for anonymous Asian > OEMs. > What's the chance of that? No way. If nobody else wants it I'll buy the Leia name for pennies and have somebody make and sell Leica branded "lens babies" ;-) SignatureSander +++ Out of cheese error +++ > From his web site, dated January 2005: > [quoted text clipped - 14 lines] > > http://www.imx.nl/photosite/leica/leicahome.html Leica also manufacture lot of lab equipment. At my wife's lab they have several Leica microscopes. Is the same company or separate branches? > Leica also manufacture lot of lab equipment. At my wife's lab they have > several Leica microscopes. > Is the same company or separate branches? Three seperate companies sharing the legacy name and logo. The microscopes come from Leica Microsystems. See the www.leica.com site where they state so. Signature-- r.p.e.35mm user resource: http://www.aliasimages.com/rpe35mmur.htm -- r.p.d.slr-systems: http://www.aliasimages.com/rpdslrsysur.htm -- [SI] gallery & rulz: http://www.pbase.com/shootin -- e-meil: there's no such thing as a FreeLunch. > From his web site, dated January 2005: > [quoted text clipped - 14 lines] > > http://www.imx.nl/photosite/leica/leicahome.html Erwin had a posting last year about the Hermes Edition, and then another about the "a la carte" program. He seemed to be worried that Leica was increasingly becoming a boutique camera, and only attracting collectors. There was a similar comment from another writer a few years ago, concerning the variety of special edition M6 and M6 TTL cameras that were made, comparing them to the Franklin Mint. When the M7 came out, Leica sales increased, and they had one of their best years ever in revenue. Unfortunately, they did not really seem to take the ball and run with it, since the MP was a good intro, but not the sales success increase like the M7 introduction. On the Leica web page is a link to Investor Relations, common with public companies. The new CEO has been chosen for re-organization. The mid 2003 to mid 2004 fiscal year brought in about 119 million Euro, a steady decline year on year since 2001 fiscal year of nearly 158 million Euros. The first half of fiscal year 2005 indicated 45 million Euros, obviously a larger decline, and likely the source of the current troubles. If you take a look at their sales: <http://www.leica-camera.com/unternehmen/ir/zahlenfakten/produkte/index_e.html> You will see about 45k units for M and R cameras, and the sport optics division nearly as high at 32k units. There was a comment in an interview last year with the former CEO that the sport optics division was helping the revenues greatly. However, these numbers are extremely low in comparison to any Japanese company, showing the niche market nature of these cameras. I think Leica might go the way of Rollei and Polaroid, in that the name will be licensed to many other products. This might be the only way to go forward. A more direction comparison is Rollei, who make a high end 6000 system for medium format, yet there primary revenues are from other products. Leica needs to trim employees, and greatly streamline. While the banks could make them liquidate, and their assets could pay off all their current debt, to do so would mean no future revenues. I think the banks and investors are far from doing that. Leica have a brand name that they need to take more advantage, and we can argue about how cheap products do not help, but I really think that any brand name might be better than no brand name. A similar situation also happened with Hasselblad, who were bought by Shriro, one of the largest distributors. Unit sales at Hasselblad were similar to Leica system camera unit sales, and the prices are somewhat comparable. Perhaps Shriro might also want the Leica brand, and put that in house with Hasselblad, and I think that is much more likely than any large camera company buying Leica. <http://www.shriro.com> Shriro already have acquired Imacon, for digital backs and scanners to support Hasselblad products. Since Imacon was working on the Leica Digital R back, it would almost seem a natural for them to acquire Leica, and might be the only way future products are developed, especially anything digital. The bonds Leica issued last year provided revenues for a Digital M camera, also a development project of Imacon. Ciao! Gordon Moat A G Studio <http://www.allgstudio.com> > Erwin had a posting last year about the Hermes Edition, and then another about > the "a la carte" program. He seemed to be worried that Leica was increasingly [quoted text clipped - 58 lines] > A G Studio > <http://www.allgstudio.com> Gordon, thanks for posting that. It's probably the most balanced scenario I have read concerning the future of Leica since the story broke. I don't see the likes of Nikon, Canon, et al, permitting Leica to produce top end lenses for their cameras. It would be almost the same as those companies admitting defeat in the optical department. As you mentioned, it would be sensible for this Shriro crowd to acquire the brand and move it forward. Signature? |
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